by Rob Popplestone
If you do your calculations, there are 56 different possibilities as to who might be playing in this year's MGFNL grand final, and that's writing Mirboo North off as a finals consideration.
In short, despite being so deep in the season, there remains very little clarity as to just which two teams may rise to the top.
Hill End v Fish Creek
Hill End have fallen from second to fifth spot on the ladder in the last month.
The Hillsmen are just not putting it all together, and their frustrations started to boil over in recent weeks.
Hill End coach Mike Santo says "we gave away seven 50-metre penalties in costly positions last week, which was punishing".
This week the Rovers can ill afford to drop another game in a very tight competition. A slight lapse or lack of discipline this week could spell disaster for one of the league's premiership contenders.
Fish Creek's finals hopes are all but gone, but defeating Hill End against the odds would certainly be an occasion to celebrate for the Kangaroos.
"We are ticking a lot of boxes, just not the ones that count most," Kangaroos coach John Danckert said. "Hill End this week presents another challenge and another opportunity."
All the pressure is on Hill End to win this one; a loss too disastrous for the Rovers to consider. There will be no excuses for the Hillsmen on their home ground, but one thing's certain - Fish Creek won't it easy for them.
Thorpdale v Newborough
Thorpdale would be wondering what they have done wrong to constantly be confronted with very good teams, all of whom face the Blues with a "must win'' attitude.
This week it is the Bulldogs who travel to Thorpdale with a very clear goal in mind - defeat the opposition, take the points and return home.
Newborough last week fell short to the top of the table Tarwin and, in doing so, put in jeopardy their chances of a top two finish. You would not expect them to make that mistake this week.
"We will go back to basics and goal kicking this week as we prepare for Thorpdale on the hill, which is never an easy opponent," Newborough coach Craig Skinner said.
For the Blues, it's all about fine tuning and ability to execute what they are capable of for longer periods of time. These elements of the game were lacking last week and, in truth, have been popping their head up for most of the year.
"Our lack of polish on disposal and not taking our opportunities proved costly in the end, but the boys did put in an effort all game," Thorpdale coach Ray Pickering said.
Newborough will demand Thorpdale's best, and the Blues are sure to give it, but whether their best is yet good enough is questionable.
Morwell Easter v Foster
Morwell East did more than defeat Hill End last week; the Hawks sent a message to the league that they are capable of going all the way.
Make no mistake, the Hawks have always had what it takes to mix it with the best. The biggest test would be putting it all together against quality opposition, as they did last week.
"Our leaders were strong in their message all week, and getting the points in an important game will only build more belief within that we are on the right path," Morwell East coach Devon Soutar said.
That path now sees Foster standing in the way, with the Tigers desperately needing to claw back a win against the odds to counter their loss last week to MDU.
"Last week put us in a position that we don't want to be in, with a massive two games before our bye," Foster coach Sam Davies said.
The fact is, there have been very few easy games at any stage of the season. Only those teams that are fully deserving of a finals spot will be rewarded with one.
This clash will go a long way to determining just who of these two sides is good enough, skilful enough, desperate enough, and want it enough.
Stony Creek v Mirboo North
Whilst these two sides may well be out of the league's top six, make no mistake, this clash is as about as big as it gets.
The winner will almost certainly believe they have a chance to be a finals contender. The loser might not want to give the season up, but they should.
The Lions have somehow manufactured wins when they were least expected to do so, just last week winning yet another close one over Fish Creek. This was a win to start to have them in finals discussions.
"Last week our boys gave 100 per cent, and that's what got us over the line," Stony Creek coach Jay Accardi said. "We now look forward to hosting Mirboo North in another must win encounter to keep our season alive."
Mirboo North have not yet reached any impressive level but are coming off a rare win.
"We're off to Stony Creek this week and hope that the boys can bring the same effort and get another win," Mirboo North coach Josh Taylor said.
The hurdle for the Lions is that the Tigers find themselves in almost exactly the same position. Unfortunately, the pathway forward has only room for one team - it's the team that wins this clash.
Tarwin v Toora
Top versus bottom should be enough to confidently predict the premiership points will be banked by Tarwin late this Saturday afternoon.
However, Sharks coach Troy Hemming, even at his very young age, is too astute to believe that they already have the win.
"This week Toora at home," Hemming said. "It starts to get too dangerous, games at this end of the season. Toora have challenged most teams, so we need to be at our best."
Toora believe they can win and that's a start, an important start for the winless Magpies, with coach Matt Ponton starting to like what he saw last week against Boolarra.
"Our boys played good structured, relentless footy all day, but had a lapse in the second quarter which gave Boolarra a 30-point lead and it was hard to claw back," Ponton said. "Three quarters of breaking even with a finals team, shows we are nearing our first win."
Despite the respect given to Toora by the Tarwin coach and the Magpies improvement, they still won't be winning this game. They just couldn't in a winless season, albeit with many commendable performances. At best, they may be a pest for the Sharks.
Tarwin, to date, has answered almost all challenges in 2022.
Yinnar v Boolarra
A week break for Yinnar has not eased the pressure the Magpies will feel when they host Boolarra on their home ground.
The Demons have taken almost all before them this year and currently sit in second spot, a position they will be unwilling to give up to a side that no doubt wants exactly what Boolarra have.
"We played some good footy last week in the first half," Boolarra coach Tony Giardina said. "Hopefully we can get some players back for another big game this week in Yinnar."
An in-form Boolarra, currently second on the ladder with as many as four first choice players to come back into starting 18, guarantees Yinnar will need to be at their best to have another win on their home ground.
The Magpies have some time to regroup after their week off and there will be no excuses if they cannot get the job done.
"The bye came at a good time for us," Yinnar coach Daniel Taylor said. "We have some injury concerns, like everybody else, so we've freshened up. But with Boolarra this week and Newborough the next, it's like a mini finals series for us and it will decide our season."
The matter of fact assessment by Taylor is about as perfect as it gets. There will be nowhere to hide this week, and the ferocity at ball and body will no doubt be a feature of this game.
BYE: MDU